June 2023 London-St. Thomas Housing Market Update
London Ontario Spring Market Outlook
We can’t pretend to have a crystal ball and make any hard and fast predictions, but barring a significant recession (in January the worry was further interest hikes), the fundamentals make a strong case that the bottom is in and that London is poised to recover quickest nationwide. Here why we think this is the case:
Unprecedented price drop, faster and further than the rest:
Even though prices are still at least 33-50% higher than pre-pandemic levels, the largest average home price drop in its history saw London and St. Thomas had a higher percentage decline in average home prices than all major Canadian cities. It also has a relatively lower number of home sales, with a decline of 45.8% compared to the previous year.
Based on the information provided in the table, London and St. Thomas have an average home price of $583,500 in February 2023, which is below the national average of $662,437. The region has also experienced a significant decrease in average home prices over the past year, with a 25.1% drop, which is higher than the national average of an 18.9% decline.
Prices have started to level and have turned in February
As predicted in our last Outlook, both the sales activity and average price drops had begun to soften and showed signs of turning, now that has been confirmed with the first average price increase of 6% month over month in February. Speaking for London and St. Thomas markets specifically, we are calling this range the bottom. With continued recession fears and high interest rates we don’t see a significant price pop until next year, but if you’re a buyer it doesn’t make sense to think that your killer deal is coming in the winter.
Market fundamentals are driving even more demand
The housing shortage hasn’t been touched as home sale volumes are still at historic lows, so demand is still at a historic high. As of last year, London is the fastest growing city in Ontario. With Canada’s population hitting a record growth last year, London’s has been predicted to grow at an unprecedented rate for the next 50 years.
London’s unsexy economy is now a national leader
The pandemic recovery saw the London region’s economy grow at a faster pace than all other southern Ontario cities, and downtown core recovery leads the nation. Without the exodus of tech jobs plaguing other cities, the diverse nature of the local economy will continue to weather 2023’s rough patch.
Affordability relative to the rest
Looking at where we’ve landed with current province-wide prices, London’s lower average home price puts it back in a competitive position, and has kept demand for new homes from falling further.
CMHC reports that once interest rates stabilize, home-buying demand should return, putting upward pressure on prices again this year. Renters boxed out of the ownership and those waiting on the sidelines for market conditions to stabilize, will be leaping in markets like London first, where there is far more value to be had compared to higher priced regions. It might be a good idea to start comparing home builders that are now pricing fairly in the current market, as any new developments coming online in the latter half of next year will be on the rise again in 2024.
Every homeowner’s finance and lifestyle is their own, but one thing is certain regardless of market conditions- working with a builder that will provide the most value for your investment at the time both in the lot and the build is key.
Buying a New Home in 2023: Myths and Misconceptions
Many first-time homebuyers may avoid the idea of buying a new home, due to the common misconceptions that it will be too expensive and take too long to complete. However, buying new construction is different from purchasing an existing home, and these misconceptions may prevent potential homebuyers from considering a viable path to homeownership that could be beneficial for them.
Here are some of the new home myths and misconceptions that should be considered before making assumptions that can affect your lifestyle significantly.
1. New construction homes are more expensive
While the upfront cost of new construction homes may be higher than older homes, it is important to consider the total cost of ownership and value of features and finishes included. A new home comes with a brand-new roof, appliances, HVAC equipment and major systems, which may not need to be repaired or replaced for a long time, saving the buyer from additional costs. Additionally, new homes often have energy-efficient features, which can lower utility costs over time. Therefore, it is important to consider all costs and factor in the remaining life expectancy of the components in a pre-owned home to understand the true cost of ownership.
2. It’s harder to finance a new home
This is actually false, a new home may actually be easier to finance than an older home as there are more options in some cases. Builder incentives and the lower risk associated with buying new construction can make the process smoother. Builders often have relationships with lenders or subsidiaries whose primary focus is to help borrowers find better lending options. Smaller builders that do not have an affiliated lender will typically work with a local mortgage broker to assist buyers in securing loans.
3. New-construction homes are of poorer quality than pre-owned homes
New-construction homes are subject to the latest building codes which have become more stringent over time. New homes are required to meet improved electrical wiring requirements, higher insulation requirements, more efficient air conditioners and improvements in plumbing, among other things. Additionally, construction principles do not change whether it is a new or pre-owned home, as the house will be built to a requisite standard, likely outdated ones in the case of older homes. It’s up to you to understand the hundreds of design and construction details and compare them to current building standards when considering an existing home. Buyers can conduct home inspections and see construction details first hand even before settling on a builder. Buyers can also periodically inspect the home throughout the build, giving them and their inspector a better understanding of the home’s build quality, and of course, the pre-delivery inspection.
4. New homes lose their value faster than pre-existing properties
As an appreciating asset, new-construction homes will generally appreciate in value even before their buyers have moved in. Unless in the middle of a housing downturn, pricing in a new community will increase as the homes are sold and usually another spike in value once the entire community is completed. Viewed from a real-estate investment perspective there are very many location-specific factors that impact your home value, not to mention your specific project costs. Becoming familiar with local real estate values and trends is important but not overly difficult or as complex as an agent or uninformed friend may infer.
5. New-construction homes lack character
The value builders place on aesthetic qualities can vary wildly, as does the nature of the service they provide. Some builders build homes on spec with predetermined specifications, while others allow for a variety of selections and upgrades, or go even further to create a highly tailored experience and involve you in every detail of the process. It’s important to research the builder’s portfolio as well as their design staff before making a decision. Generally speaking, a timeless character is a result of how well the designer purposefully executes a theme that’s consistent across the entire home.
6. You’ll be waiting a long time to move in
Construction of new homes can take on average about 6-8 months from start to finish. However, this does not necessarily mean that buyers will have to wait that long to move in. Many builders start construction on spec homes before having a buyer, which means that the construction of the home may be well underway or even completed before a buyer makes a purchase. If you want to avoid waiting, you can check if there is a spec home available.
7. You need to work with a Realtor to buy a new home
A new-construction is similar to any other real estate transaction, there might be an opportunity for you to negotiate on the price, contract terms, add-ons, completion date, and other incentives. The beauty with a new home is that you can very transparently compare apples to apples across multiple options. Having a real estate agent can help or add bias, but slightly more so with new construction deals as they may lean towards a builder they are familiar with or benefit them the most.
We’re happy to discuss any of your concerns or questions as well as help inform your home buying research regardless of what stage you’re in.
London Homes Real Estate Market Report Forecast 2022/2023
Taking stock of the tumultuous, quite unprecedented London Ontario real-estate market means pausing for a breath and zooming out a bit to gain a bit of perspective as we head into 2023. Cutting through all the noise and looking at the data, we can see that even though this year’s painful price drop was large and fast, homes are still priced 40% higher even after popping the pandemic bubble.
Consensus seems to be that we’ve seen the most of this correction, and with that behind us, at worst there will be further softening into the spring depending on local market conditions. The first resale increase in eight months occurred in October across Canada to 424,600 units (seasonally adjusted and annualized). This potentially signals market activity is nearing a bottom after sliding 36% over the previous seven months. Not to conflate market activity with values, property values have also fallen the least since May, possibly marking the latter stages of this downturn. It’s the interest rates that complicate things further.
It shouldn’t be a surprise that uncontrolled spending will cause issues, as it shouldn’t to realize cost of ownership can double with the interest rates that have rocketed to try to control inflation. It may have been cheaper to own a home in 2019 than in 1996, with average values at $199,857 resulting in a monthly mortgage payment of $1,525.34 under the eight percent interest rate. Fast forward to 2021, average values of $639,745 would result in a monthly payment of $2,709 under a two per cent interest rate. That’s a tripling in home value with mortgages only growing by half.
And while the short-term picture may seem murky, the fundamentals of the London market have not changed. The housing shortage is still dire, and historic immigration levels coupled with London remaining more affordable than communities closer to the Greater Toronto Area, pent up demand is only getting worse. The rebound depends more on when the Bank of Canada ends its aggressive run-up of interest rates more than anything else.
CMHC reports that once interest rates stabilize, home-buying demand should return, putting upward pressure on prices again by summer. Renters boxed out of the ownership and those waiting on the sidelines for market conditions to stabilize, will be leaping in markets like London first, where there is far more value to be had compared to higher priced regions. Forecasts range from a 2-8% rise in average home prices nationally in 2024. This would mean home values in markets like London’s should be seeing that kind of growth starting in the latter half of 2023. With lead times for new homes being what they are, it makes perfect sense to start shopping with home builders that can now price fairly in the current market conditions, as with any new developments coming online in the latter half of next year will be on the rise again. Every homeowner’s finance and lifestyle is their own, so it doesn’t make sense to generalize, but one thing is certain regardless of market conditions- working with a builder that will provide the most value for your investment at the time both in the lot and the build is key.
Some links for your reference:
https://wowa.ca/london-housing-market
https://www.mortgagesandbox.com/london-real-estate-forecast
https://thoughtleadership.rbc.com/beginning-of-the-end-for-canadas-housing-market-downturn/
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/london/london-ontario-real-estate-1.6384182
https://london.ctvnews.ca/london-ont-housing-market-in-flux-1.6072266
Wickerson Lottery Dreamhome
One of the two dream homes built by Millstone London is located in the gorgeous Wickerson Woods alongside London’s Ski Club, perfect for the avid ski family! This $1.44 million home will be presented to the lucky winner on Thursday, January 11th.
This home has outstanding scenery in one of London’s best kept secrets – tucked right behind Bolermountain with views of downtown London! The whole design of the home was created to highlight the beautiful view and accented by top of the line hardwood floors and furnishings.
The perfectly symmetrical kitchen features built in ovens, hidden appliances, hidden pantry and quartz countertops with a matching backsplash – ideal for the modern chef. Let’s not forget, once again, that view that shoots all the way to downtown London.
Our favourite part of this home is the basketball court, how can you not love the 15 ft ceilings with Canadian maple, oil finished hardwood floors with a regulation basketball net. Another cool feature to this court is a camera that allows you to watch your kids playing ball from the master bedroom.
If you want to learn more about the amazing features of this home, watch the video below or view the gallery here.
Home Specifications
- 4 Bedrooms
- 4 Bathrooms
- 1,458 sq.ft. Main Floor Area
- 1,527 sq.ft. 2nd Floor Area
- 1,237 sq.ft. Finished Basement
- 390 sq.ft. Dropped Level Basketball Court
Highland Lottery Dreamhome
One of the two luxurious homes designed and built for the London Lottery Dream Home contest! Located alongside the prestigious Highland Country Club, architecturally, this $1.46 million home has some unique features including the 16 ft vaulted ceilings in the kid’s bedroom, modern furnishings and 25ft patio doors imported from Germany that lead you out to a beautiful deck overlooking the backyard – perfect for entertaining.
This house is jam-packed with everything from candy dispensers, walk-through master closets and furniture sourced from all over the world! Along with the work from our incredible designers, we were able to come up with elegant yet functional design solutions.
In the kitchen for example, you have a “french bakery” theme that is very warm and inviting. The discreet fridge and freezer blend right in with the cabinetry making them near impossible to point out and keeping the design of the kitchen seamless.
For more information on the home and it’s unique features, watch the video below or visit the home gallery here.
Home Specifications:
- 3 Bedrooms
- 4 Bathrooms
- 2,009 sq.ft. Main Floor Area
- 1,594 sq.ft. 2nd Floor Area
- 2,009 sq.ft. Unfinished Basement
- 5,612 sq.ft. Total
Progress in Upper Richmond…
Staged photos and listing coming this weekend – Last lot in Broughdale Gates. Stay tuned. Here are some cell phone shots for now…
Surrounded by some of London’s most magnificent homes and located in the private cul-de-sac of Broughdale Gates in upper Richmond, this remarkable residence truly stands out with its unique finishes and authentic character.Hundred year-old brick from a church in South London along with custom cast stone trim and blocks adorn the utterly timeless exterior. The pediments were cast from a mould that was designed and hand carved for only this magnificent facade. As with the rest of the interior, no expense was was spared in creating an exterior with character. Everything on the facade is bespoke, from the cast stone trim to the metal chimney top. Stamped concrete drive, walkways and patio ensures maintenance free beauty. The very large garage also impresses with its functionality, a fourth garage door opens to the rear yard.The entry is adorned with a custom designed mosaic made specifically for this project, mirroring the 4 chandeliers hanging over the majestic 2 storey entrance. To the left of the entrance an office/den features stained oak built-in unit, wall panelling and coffered ceiling. To the right, a formal dining room, beautifully detailed with moulded trim, wall and ceiling treatments, topped with an impressive crystal chandelier. Tucked behind is a butler pantry and in the main hallway a wide closet with built-in organizer. The main living area surrounds a two-way fireplace with custom floor to ceiling millwork and mother of pearl surround. The multi-purpose mud-room functions as an entry, a laundry and clothing storage. But let’s not forget it welcomes the homeowner, and with its beautiful fixtures, cabinetry and floor to ceiling mosaic, does just that.One of the most opulent spaces we’ve ever designed, this kitchen is truly a space to behold with intricate on-of-a kind cabinetry and extraordinary finishes. A Wolf gas range sits under a walnut mantle with mother of pearl surround flanked by carved, glass doored cabinets. The large two-tiered island is topped with walnut counter on walnut corbels under two crystal chandeliers. A large walk-in pantry with storage organizer hides behind the left door of a solid wood detailed dresser, and a Sub Zero built-in fridge behind the door on the right.
Upstairs, each chandelier- topped bedroom features large windows with views of the mature trees in the rear yard. There are two full bathrooms besides the ensuite, each featuring exquisite marble mosaic, full height mirrors and chandeliers (there are a total of 15 chandeliers in this home besides the 40 pot lights). The grand master bedroom with its stepped ceiling features a gorgeous walk-in closet with walnut-topped island.
We feel completely justified in calling this en suite a “spa bathroom”. A floor to ceiling glass waterfall frames the freestanding corian tub across from the wall to wall glass shower. The shower features a steam unit, horizontal shower system and heated bench. Details such as ambient lighting and even space to exercise add the final touch to this thoughtfully designed space.
The fully finished basement is over 1500sf of space with the same attention to detail and finishes as the rest of the home. A home theatre complete with built-in dual wall speakers (Proficient 125W system), 110″ screen and projector as well as exercise room and large rec room make the basement a great place to be. Oversized windows, luxurious full bathroom, large bedroom and walk-in closet complete with organizers are testament to the same attention given to the rest of the home.
As with any other home we pride ourselves in having built, we encourage you to compare the features of this home with any other in its range. We truly believe in building unmatched value along with unmatched beauty.
SOME SPEC HIGHLIGHTS:
EXTERIORS – Custom cast stone trim & blocks, locally reclaimed brick (2 stories), stamped concrete drive, walkways and patio, fully landscaped.
APPLIANCES INCLUDED – (Top models, generally highest capacity) Wolf GR366-Red Gas Range, Sub-Zero 736CI-RH Refrigerator, Dishwasher, Miele Dishwasher, 1.4CF Nutid drop-door Microwave, Front-load 5.0 CF Whirpool Washer, Front-load 7.4CF Whirlpool Dryer, Water Softener, Whole home filtration system.
HVAC – Gas range hook-up, Gas barbecue line, HRV system, Humidifier system, 2 way gas fireplace, Programmable thermostat, Heated en suite floor, Heated shower bench.
ELECTRONIC SPECS – Cat 5 and cable wiring to every room. Alarm system with 4 motion zones, sensors on all doors and basement windows, touch screen control (with picture frame function). 8 channel sound system with 16 speakers on all 3 levels. Belt-drive, smart phone controlled garage door openers. Complete home theatre system with built in dual speakers, 110″ screen, 1080P BenQ projector. Central vac (top Nilfisk model). USB wall chargers.
LIGHTING – 15 Chandeliers throughout, over 40 pot lights throughout, LED exterior accent up-lights, upscale designer lighting throughout.
PLUMBING – Grohe fixtures, Corian freestanding tub & filler, horizontal shower system, steam shower, waterfall feature
FLOORING – Wide plank engineered hardwood throughout on both floors, Marble, Custom cut mosaic, Berber carpeted basement.
Ultimate Living Space, Unmatched Features in Talbot Village
Over 3,100sf of stunning features and designer finishes. Modern wood panelled fireplace feature in great room opposite designer kitchen with exotic stone slab range surround. HUGE 14’x13′ fully built-in walk in closet featuring his and hers sections with glass topped island! Upscale lighting and plumbing fixtures throughout like freestanding tub and Grohe faucets. Double vanities, tiled, oversized glass shower in both main bath and ensuite.
Millstone Homes quality means it’s in the details you see and feel (from soft close kitchen hinges to the paint finish) and those you can’t like tight building envelope. Unmatched value means you’re not getting a garage door open “rough-in”; you’re getting a top model (silent belt system) included. It means you’re getting more in lighting (fixtures and number of pot-lights), plumbing, and surfaces (from top tier wide hardwood planks to exotic mosaics) than you would anywhere else for the price. Compare the unmatched value for yourself! Currently offered at $550k. Our last lot in Talbot Village! To be built. Interior images of similar model previously built.
London’s Unique Fox Field Trail Community, Creekview
Fox Field Trail – Creekview Neighbourhood
London is recognized as one of Ontario’s most livable cities, and North London is a prime example of why it is. What’s more is that we’re bringing Oak Series’ unmatched value and accessible luxury to this Fox Field Trail within the Creekview subdivision.
With schools, shopping, prime entertaining and dining literally down the street, yet on the edge of town in a park-like setting- FoxField is a remarkable place to call home. The list below includes the amenities within 5 minutes, then there’s the bustle of Hyde Park and Masonville, both less than 10 minutes from this great Northwest London location.
As per usual, you’ll soon be seeing some homes here with features unlike any other in this neighborhood. For ground floor deals call us soon, from the interest we’ve had, we expect the homes to move quickly starting in the $360’s – we encourage you to compare. Our lots are located on Tokala Trail within the newest phase next to Fox Field Trail in Creekview.
RESTAURANTS
Boston Pizza
Four Seasons Restaurant
Nov8 Sushi Galore
Montana’s
Union Burger
Kiwi Kraze
Wong’s Garden
Kelsey’s
Crossing’s Grill & Pub
Bernie’s Bar & Grill
Robbie Walkers Fish & Chips
Black Pearl Pub
Crave Restaurant
Wok Box
Wonder Sushi
Main Street Pan Asian Kitchen
The Lunch Lady
Crossing’s Grill & Pub
Lord Gainsborough Restaurant
Franchini Panini
Richie’s Family Restaurant
East Side Mario’s
PIZZA
Panago Pizza
Flying Tomato Pizza
Pizza Pizza
Domino’s
FAST FOOD
KFC / Taco Bell
Quiznos Sub
Wendy’s
McDonalds
Subway
Arby’s
A&W
CAFES
Tim Hortons
Early Riser
Starbucks
Frozen Yogurt
David’s Tea
SCHOOLS
AK Arts Academy
Saint Marguerite D’Youville Catholic School
Family Karate Centres
Emily Carr Public School
The Dance Movement
Artventure Art Studio
St. marguerite D’Youville Elementary School
Jiu-jitsu Academy
Neufeld Learning Systems
Academy of Music
Orchard Park Nursery School Inc
Achievement & Learning Centre
RELIGIOUS CENTRES
Connections Community Church
Church Growth Resources
West Park Baptist Church
Forest CIty Bible Church
Jehovah’s Witnesses
Life International Church
Church of the Hosannas
Trinity Presbyterian Church
Old Roman Catholic Church
CHILD CARE
Whitehills Daycare
YMCA Child Care
Western day Care Early Learning Centre
Orchard Park Nursery School
Kangaroo’s Pouch Day Care
Whitehills Childcare Association
Kidzone Day Care Centre
YMCA Child Care
Kids & Company London
Acorn Christian Day Care
SHOPPING
Winners
Nygard
Globo Shoes
Lojahz
Le Chateau Outlet
Golf Town
Payless Shoe Source
Old Navy
Reitmans
Old Navy
Canadian Tire
BANKS
Scotiabank
RBC Royal Bank
TD Canada Trust
BMO Bank of Montreal
CIBC Branch & ATM
Libro Financial Group
LIBRARIES
London Public Library, Sherwood Branch
Allyn & Betty Taylor Library
London Public Library
One of our Oak Homes for Sale
This superlatively designed transitional space is likely the most feature-laden and thoughtfully designed residence available at this price point in North London. The unique design kitchen with overhead doors features soft-closing mechanism, vertical rack drawers, and microwave lift-up style opener. The quartz countertop is specialty fabricated to include a rare 3-inch waterfall over both sides of the kitchen island. Plumbing and lighting fixtures are unique designer pieces throughout the home. Fine tile setting demonstrates attention to detail with the custom patterns and cuts on floors and fully tiled walls. The living room headwall, with its floor to ceiling mosaic fireplace and exotic wall covering, makes for some great atmosphere. All bathrooms include fully tiled feature walls as well; with attention even lent to the tile grid patterns, designed to impart a subtle modern element to the calming atmosphere of the ensuite bath.
